Who else will run? Here’s what I’m hearing
At least three potential candidates still have a decision to make
With Wayne Township Trustee Austin Knox’s official announcement later this morning that he is entering the caucus to replace Mayor Tom Henry, the list of serious candidates now stands at four. Michelle Chambers, Phil GiaQuinta, Sharon Tucker and Knox all have a legitimate shot to win on April 20th, but two full weeks remain until the deadline to file.
Will anyone else join them?
That’s the question being asked by party insiders as the field begins to crystallize. Here is a breakdown of the three individuals most likely to throw their names in the hat, based on what I’m hearing:
Geoff Paddock
As the longest-tenured Democrat on Fort Wayne City Council, Paddock makes sense as a caucus candidate to be the next mayor. That most of the precinct chairs are located in the 6th and 5th district – which Paddock represents – is another built-in advantage.
Like everyone on this list, he’s had preliminary conversations about jumping in the race, but I’ve been told the support he would need just isn’t materializing. At least one potential key ally told Paddock in recent days that they would be backing GiaQuinta instead. Being an older white male at a time when many local Democrats want more diverse leadership doesn’t help, either.
Likelihood of Running: 10%
Patti Hays
The former two-time City Council candidate for the 4th District has significant executive experience from her time as a senior VP for Lutheran Health Network and friendships with many of the same donors who’ve helped fund Tom Henry’s recent campaigns. Maybe that’s why, before Henry changed his mind and decided to run for a fifth term in 2023, Hays was rumored to have been told by the mayor that he wanted her to succeed him.
But I’ve heard whispers Hays may not feel comfortable throwing her hat into the ring before Henry is laid to rest next week, a potential delay that would put her at a distinct disadvantage. She’d also have to convince enough precinct chairs she could hold on to the mayor’s seat in 2027 despite having fallen short in her previous campaigns.
Likelihood of Running: 33%
Stephanie Crandall
(NOTE: Hours after this was published, Crandall declared she is a candidate.)
If the precinct chairs want to replace Tom Henry with a member of his administration, Crandall is the obvious choice. She’s worked closely with him as his director of intergovernmental affairs for over ten years. That makes her best positioned to continue his policies and governing style; she also knows more than most candidates do about what the job truly entails.
Unfortunately for her, that familiarity may not be what the precinct chairs are prioritizing. Several I’ve spoken with expressed worries that Crandall is not yet a strong enough politician to win a contested general election, as much as they like her.
And considering her close working relationship with Henry, will she even want to campaign for the job while navigating the grief she must be feeling over his very sudden death? As with Hays, just a week between the funeral and the caucus doesn’t leave much time for campaigning.
Likelihood of Running: 50%